合理的行為者モデルによるEU拡大分析 : 構成主義的分析による合理モデル批判を受けて

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This article analyzes the EU's eastward enlargement in the post-Cold War era using the rational actor model (RAM). The RAM is an assumption that the actor makes the decision of his behavior by considering the cost-benefit calculation. Graham Allison asserts "If a nation or its representatives performed a particular action, that action must have been selected as the value-maximizing means to achieve the actor's objectives", while the constructivist, Frank Schimmelfennig insists that in order to explain the EU's case, the international norm and the political value is more useful than the cost-benefit analysis. The object of this article is to demonstrate that the RAM is suitable for understanding the EU's case by adding the political cost-benefit to the rational model. The EU accepted ten central and eastern European countries (CEECs) as new members in May, 2004. In the 80s, the EC offered development assistance (structural policy) on the occasion of expansion to Southern Europe in order to narrow the economic gap between Southern Europe and EC member nations. If the EU applies such structural policy based on the present standard to CEECs as well, it will become far more indispensable than for South European countries. The CEECs' average GDP per capita was 46.4% (weighted average value by purchasing power parity) of the EU average in 2001. When the common agricultural policy (CAP) is applied to CEE in such economic conditions, the expenditures for CEECs -including Poland, which has a huge agricultural sector-will amount to an annual 11 billion ECU (by the European Commission's calculation), and will greatly press the EU financially. Why has the EU aimed at eastward expansion, even at such financial cost? In other words, how can the EU's political leaders secure "benefits" which balance the financial cost? What are the costs and benefits of the accession for CEECs? These points are the focus of this article. In order to understand the expansion strategy of the EU, analysis from the security side is necessary. Joining the EU, the CEECs not only enter into the single market of the EU, but it will cooperate with the EU in the Common Foreign Security Policy (CFSP). CEECs' cooperation with the EU in CFSP has an important meaning for European security. Furthermore, if the regional conflict breaks out in the politically unstable CEECs, the potential costs such as military intervention, Peace-Keeping Operations, and refugee care will occur. To avoid the huge cost generated by such conflict, the eastward expansion can also be regarded as preventive diplomacy.
2006-03-31

合理的行為者モデルによるEU拡大分析 : 構成主義的分析による合理モデル批判を受けて

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