パレスチナ紛争を検証する : 現地調査に基づく分析と展望
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概要
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The Middle East peace process has stalled. With the resumed exchange of violence, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has dramatically intensified, making the Road Map, a new peace plan agreed to in June 2003, to stumble at its first phase .The author visited Israel, Palestine and the neighboring countries of Syria and Jordan in September of 2003. The purpose of the journey was to look in to the state of affairs of the ongoing conflict and antagonism, and to grope for an exit out of the quagmire and a way of building a sustainable peace and stability in the region. The gist of the author's findings and conclusions is as follows 1.) The current leaders of the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority seem to have neither strong enough political will nor competence to stop the vicious circle of violence and revenge. In order to attain a workable cease-fire, which is a prerequisite for resuming peace talks and making them succeed, outside intervention in the form of the deployment of a peacekeeping force is necessary. The U. S. government should persuade Israel to accept it. 2.) It is wrong to attribute armed attacks by the Palestinians against the Israelis solely to religiously motivated fanaticism. The cause of violence is much more complicated and multi-faceted. Under the Israeli occupation regime, the Palestinians are exposed to abuse of human rights and unbearable humiliation, including killings of the innocent by their security force. Palestinians are living hopeless lives in utter poverty, devoid of working places. For some, life is rendered even more difficult by forced demolition of their houses and confiscation of their farmland. Freedom of movement within Palestine is severely restricted; they refer to the situation as being in an animal cage. Faced with such suffering and agony, it is not inconceivable that some Palestinians have been driven to extreme and desperate acts such as suicide bombings. Unless Israel gives up its occupation policy, the conflict will not be resolved. 3.) Two conditions have emerged that are likely to compel Israel to adopt a more conciliatory attitude vis-a-vis the Palestinians and neighboring Arab countries. One is the serious economic crisis Israel has been facing over the past three years, largely a backlash effect of the deterioration of security since the beginning of the second intifada. The economic slump is likely to continue unless the violence is stopped.The other is a change in the demographic structure. The high birth rate of the Palestinians is going to cause their population to exceed that of the Israelis is less than ten years. Israelis, a minority as a result, will find it difficult to treat the Palestinian majority as subordinates and to stick to their policy of occupation. The identity of Israel as a Jewish state will also be challenged. 4.) Aiming to avoid painful territorial concessions and to preserve the identity of the Jewish state, Israel may give up on negotiating a settlement of the conflict and resort to unilateral measures. So far, Israel has set up a border along the lines of a separation barrier. These are already partly constructed, annexing tracts of land carved out of occupied territories, to Israel proper. The remainder of the occupied areas will be ceded to the Palestinians for creating their own state. Israel intends to treat such a state as a foreign country. Economic and financial assistance provided by Israel under the occupation regime will be terminated. The international community should be well prepared for this contingency.
- 2003-12-20