ソフトエネルギーパスに基づく地域エネルギーの経済的・環境的評価

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A new and widespread crisis resulting from the reduction in oil supply has made its impact not only upon regional energy demand but also on regional economic structures. A greater volume of new energy demand is expected in the coming years. The strongest possibility for meeting such demands is by energy conservation through a Soft Energy Path adopting the practical uses of regional energy : natural energy and biomass. The objective of the study is to develop a regional planning model for energy conservation by the practical use of regional energy : natural energy and biomass. It will also cover an economic and environmental evaluation of the regional energy obtained from the Soft Energy. We will attempt to apply this new regional planning model to the Tokachi Region of Hokkaido in Japan. This region has not only an abundant degree of potential energy and biomass, but also good prospects for regional development. The framework of the study involves firstly, the clarification of the social, economic and industrial structures and the degree of potential regional energy of naturl energy and biomass. Secondly, the relationships between the social, economic and industrial structures and regional energy flow will be discussed. And thirdly, a regional energy model arising from the Soft Energy Path will be constructed, and finally the economic and environmental impacts of the Soft Energy Path will be evaluated ; The main results of estimates and evaluations arising from the soft energy path in the Tokachi Region are as follows. (1) The estimates of the energy demand in the Tokachi Region is as follows. The energy demand of electric light and electric power in 1985 is estimated to be 1.9 times greater than in 1975, with the energy demand of lamp oil 1.6 times, the energy demand and of LPG 1.7 times, the energy demand of heavy oil 2.1 times and the energy demand of gasoline 1.9 times. (2) The estimates of the energy conservation rates in the Tokachi Region arising from the Soft Energy Path are as follows. The energy demand of electric light and electric power in 1985 is substituted by 6.0% with the Soft Energy, with lamp oil by 12.0%, LPG by 71.0% and the total energy by 7.3%. (3) The estimates of the energy conservation rates in Obihiro City with the example of the town model arising from the Soft Energy Path are described as follows. The energy demand of electric light and electric power in 1985 is substituted by 4.1% with the Soft Energy, with lamp oil by 8.0%, LPG by 21.2% and the total by 5.2%. (4) The estimates of the energy conservation rates in Urahoro village with the example of the farm village model arising from the Soft Energy Path are described as follows. The energy demand of electric light and electric power in 1985 is substituted by 9.0% with the Soft Energy, with lamp oil by 26%, LPG by 100% and the total energy by 25%. As mentioned above, the substitution rate of farm village represents a higher figure than that of town. (5) The estimates of introductive rates of solar energy and biomass based on attitudinal servey on settlers in Otohuke, Shimizu and Sarabetsu villages are as follows. The estimates of introductive rates of solar energy of Otohuke, Shimizu and Sarabetsu represent high values such as 80%, 83%and 73%. The estimates of introductive rates of biomass represent half values such as 52%, 57% and 52%. It was most efficient method to reduce the energy costs that the energy conservation method added to the soft energy introductive system. (6) The reduction rates of air pollution and water pollution arising from the Soft Energy in the Tokachi Region are 6.7% and 40% respectively. The reduction rate of water pollution represents a higher figure than that of air pollution. (7) In comparing the direct costs of alternative energy systems, the present values of payments with the annuity loan of solar system is $0.11 per 1,000 kcal, making the wind power as $0.10 per 1,000 kcal and the biomass as $0.05 per 1,000 kcal. The biamass is cheaper than other alternative energy systems. (8) The accumulated alternative investments of the soft energy locational industries in the Tokachi Region are as follows. The solar energy investment is $220 million, the wind power investment $250 million, the biomass $260 million and the total $730 million. If the total investment of $730 million is allocated for five years from 1981 to 1985, then the average investment per year becomes about $146 million. Furthermore, the benefits from compost per year is $52 million and the reduction cost of lamp oil import per year in the Tokachi Region is $15 million, and the reduction cost of LPG import per year in the Tokachi Region is $17 million. As mentioned above, the economic impact is estimated at a high level. (9) The accumulated regional total employment opportunities arising from the annual output of the soft energy industries located in the Tokachi Region in 1985 are as follows. The sum of the regional total employment opportunities in other regions is equal to the one in Hokkaido. The remarkable feature is the expansion of the regional total employment opportunities in the Kanto Region which advanced industrially. (10) The regional total employment opportunities by industries in 1985 are as follows. The regional total secondary industry employment opportunities arising from the soft energy industries are 7.3% of the secondary industry employment in the Tokachi Region. This results in influences on the manufacturing industries with a lower level than the national level in a favourable way. In addition, the remarkable feature is that the expansion of the regional total employment opportunities of tertiary industries in Hokkaido is 40% of total ones. This is the main cause which is the indirect repercussive impact of the locational industries of the soft energy industries.
北海道大学の論文
1983-12-20

ソフトエネルギーパスに基づく地域エネルギーの経済的・環境的評価

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