Demographic System Modelの設定に関する研究 : 苫小牧工業地帯を事例として

概要

論文の詳細を見る
As is generally recognized, the change of the region caused by the large scale development is rapidly prompting, and its effect appears the population change apparently. The rapid change in population gives rise to much problems in the region. Therefore, points to which special attention should be paid are to predict the movement of population arising from a location of the large scale industrial park. It is clearly of considerable importance for the regional planners to take its results into consideration and make a plan for a development. The objectives of this present paper are to identify the structure of the Demographic System Model by means of the DYNAMO equations of SD (Systems Dynamics) and the technique of multivariate analysis, and with the aid of its model to try the post analysis of the macro movement of intra-regional population arising from industrial development. The primary demographic processes are formularized as follows : ΔP=B_t-D_t+M_<t,i>-M_<t,o> where ΔP : number of increase or decrease in population. B_i : number of birth at t. D_i : number of death at t. M_<t,i> : number of in-migrants at t. M_<t,o> : number of out-migrants at t. Each of the right-hand side is determined by the economic, social, and cultural factors. Namely, the population sector has to do with the relationships between both economic and social sector. And the relationships among the three sectors consists of the interdisciplinary factors. To put it in the concrete, we try to apply the Systems Dynamics which lately has become the center of wide interest to the Demographic System Model of Tomakomai city (Hokkaido) with the large scale Seibu Industrial Zone. To summarize our interpretation of the results of this study. We can explain as follows : -On the structural identification of the model- 1) The model is made up four sectors : population, industrial, capital formation, and fiscal sector. In addition, the first sector consists of three sub-sector : birth, death, and migration subsector. 2) Exogenous variables (policy variables) are the administrative investment by national and Hokkaido prefectural government. Accordingly, the main routine of the model begins with the fiscal sector. 3) We obtained satisfactory fitness between the real value and the value generated by the model. We used the three tests, namely partial, intrasctoral, and intersectoral tests as a technique to get the reasonable results. -On the macro movement of population- 1) As is obvious from the four population indecies, the structure of population will become older and older. For exsample, IOO (rate of aged population 65 and over to children under 15) has an increasing tendendy every year. In the part it increased from 10.7% (1960) to 18.0% (1975). 2) Though alternative index (the value of children under 15 to adults aged 15-29) is the minimum of 0.824 in 1970, it will progressively increase. 3) The net migration arising from the location of Seibu Industrial zone is the differential migration which centers adults aged 15-34. Accordingly, the distortion of population pyramid appears clearly.
北海道大学の論文
1980-03-28

Demographic System Modelの設定に関する研究 : 苫小牧工業地帯を事例として

スポンサーリンク

概要

著者

関連論文

スポンサーリンク