システム・ダイナミックスによる新製品普及のモデル化とその限界

概要

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In this paper, the process of diffusion of new products is modeled, using a variety of system dynamicsmodels. The sales of new products are influenced by anticipated and unanticipated factorswhich are both internal and external factors to the selling organization. To develop and designtechniques to explain the levels of new-product sales in this complex business environment, wepropose that it is necessary that system thinking be used. System thinking presents the view thateverything is interconnected in a complex network of systems and that system dynamics is anatural way to implement such a system on a computer. Although a system dynamics model isuseful, it has some limitations for modeling micro-based phenomena.Therefore, an agent-based model is introduced in this paper to overcome the shortcomingsnoted above. For example, an agent-based model can be used to avoid the ad hoc supposition thateconomic agents are almost homogeneous.
桃山学院大学の論文
2006-03-15