都市火災拡大の二次元一様空間確率モデル : 都市火災拡大の確率論的分析研究その2

概要

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The aim of this study is to make the probabilistic aspects of the fire-spread on urban area clear by building some stochastic models and by analyzing these models theoretically instead of using computer simulation. In the previous paper, three basic propositions expressing probabilistic properties of spread of urban fire were obtained by analizing one-dimensional discrete space model. In this paper, study is expanded to bidimensional model from one-dimensional model. That is, the stochastic bidimensional discrete space model in which urban area is defined as a lattice type plane and each sub-area is noted by a pair of integers, is built and the fundamental formula expressing the behaviour of the probability of burning at each sub-area is obtained. Through mathematical consideration on this model in the case that the physical characteristics on fire-spread is spatially homogeneous, seven propositions which suggest some basic principles on the planning for preventing the urban fire-spread are obtained.
1989-02-28