座礁・衝突の確率安全評価における管理要件の最適化問題

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While FSA of formal safety assessment is in marine terms still in its infancy, it is believed that such research will adopt a holistic approach to the design, operation and human aspects needed to make ships safer. The generalized methodology of FSA is published as a guidelines, leaving detailed methods undetermined. In the guide lines, human elements issues should be systematically treated within FSA framework, only with the words "appropriate techniques for incorporating human factors should be used". For the problem of human elements introduction, the author proposed the methodology of the introduction in the same ring with structure issues. To define recommendation for decision making, as a result of FSA, assessment should be made for potential risk control measures, options and cost benefit. The basic principle of the assessment is ALARP (as low as reasonably practicable). In this paper, the author investigated detailed method and algorism to determine risk control measures with cost benefit. The risk control measures are always multiple variables. For example, these for an accident are route control, navigation apparatus and hull structure. The problem is how to determine the degrees of improvements for each measure. The method and algorism in this paper is, mathematically, the optimization of a function with discrete multiple variables, including author's human element introduction method. The validity of the method is confirmed for some actual collision and grounding accidents.
社団法人日本船舶海洋工学会の論文

座礁・衝突の確率安全評価における管理要件の最適化問題

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