イマジネーションを持った予測へ(<特集>技術予測)
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概要
- 論文の詳細を見る
This author has inspected past technological forecasts and compared them to current forecasts, analyzing the differences between the two. Based on these analyses, this article presents ideas and guidelines for technological forecasting. They are as follow:1. Careful consideration of various social factors which prevent the development of technology. This point corresponds with the standard approach, which forecasts technology based on an estimation of social needs I the future. Much of the failure of forecasts is due to the misconception of needs and the lack of will to develop that estimation of the future situation surrounding technology is an important factor in technological forecasting.2. The affect of creative imagination on technological development and social needs. This point corresponds with the explorative approach, which examines the possibility of technological applications. Creative imagination with respect to future social needs makes it possible to forecast technology better.3. Imaginative insights into structural reform in technology and society. This point corresponds to the interaction between the standard approach and the explorative approach based on sound vision. In our society, there are many problems that have strong needs, but get little attention. Interaction between technology and social change will become prevalent in the near future. That is, social problems have increasingly become determinants of technological challenges. Under present circumstances, technological forecasts must always involve subjective vision. In other words, forecasts with vision will be the most reliable ones.
- 研究・技術計画学会の論文
- 1992-10-22