住民意識・行動を考慮した津波避難シミュレーションモデル

概要

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The purpose of the present study is to develop and improve the simulation model of tsunami attack evacuation by including the experience, recognition, and knowledge of the people in each area affected by tsunamis. Firstly, we carried out two field surveys to clarify various factors that influence selection of evacuation routes for making a synthetic judgment model. We determined regional knowledge, altitude, road information, road signs, following process, and functions on the route to be major factors in the route selection. A comparison with results of a field survey in the case of a tsunami evacuation drill at the coastal village in Sendai city shows that with the improved model, we obtained more than 80% agreement on selection of evacuation routes and time to the safety area. Secondly, we designed a questionnaire to be distributed at the time of the drill, which provided us with information to determine route selection process, parameters and initial conditions of the evacuations. Furthermore, the improved model, including means of evacuation, such as by foot or in vehicles, is developed and applied to this area. In the case assuming that all residents evacuate at the almost same time in the night, it is suggested that most traffic congestion occurs on the major roads, which long time it takes people to complete the evacuation.
日本自然災害学会の論文
2005-02-28