日本上陸台風の経年変動のモデル化と大阪における高潮・降雨の非定常同時生起確率の評価法

概要

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Trends in annual number and central atmospheric pressure of typhoon landfalls in Japan are represented by a combination of two stochastic models; that is, a periodic Poisson model and a self-exciting model. Based on the models an unstationary annual maxima probability distribution of central pressures is formulated, and future fluctuations for the 30-year period are simulated. The unstationary joint probability of the peak rainfall intensity and the maximum storm surge caused by a typhoon in the Osaka area are formulated considering that the typhoon course east or west of the apse line of Osaka Bay makes a great difference in the characteristics of storm surges, peak rainfall intensities and their crosscorrelation structures. The concurrent probabilities of storm surges and peak rainfall intensities at Osaka are evaluated for the past 90-year period 1901-1990 and for the future 30-year period 1991-2020.
1994-06-30