TED-AJ03-KN7 TOWARDS A DEEP REDUCTION OF GHG EMISSIONS BEYOND KYOTO TARGET

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The Third Assessment Report of the United Nations' Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that there are clear indications of changes in the climate system caused by human activities-mainly by the use of fossil fuels-and that human influences will continue to change climate throughout the 21st century. Recognizing the seriousness of the problem, a long international negotiations to challenge the climate change issues have been continued and the Kyoto target was set as an important initial step towards a sustainable future. On the other hand, the latest energy projections to 2030 by the International Energy Agency's published as World Energy Outlook 2002 [1] depicts a future in which energy use and CO_2 emissions continue to grow. Here, fossil fuels are considered to be continuing to dominate the world's energy mix over the next decades, hence, even under the climate policies which have been negotiated and agreed upon internationally, emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the energy sector are expected to continue growing, reaching 38 billion tones-CO_2 by 2030,almost 70% above today's levels, as shown in Fig. A. The geographic location of emissions will shift from the industrialized countries to the developing world. The developing countries' share of global emissions will jump from 34% now to 47% in 2030,while the OECD's share [figure]will drop from 55% to 43%. This projection also indicates an important and somewhat pessimistic future with regard to the Kyoto target as follows : The projected steep rise in emissions illustrates the challenge that most OECD countries face in meeting their commitments under the Kyoto Protocol without additional policies. Emissions in those OECD countries that signed the Protocol (including the united States) will reach 12.5 billion tones in 2010,the middle of the Protocol's target period of 2008-2012. That is 2.8 billion tones, or 29%, above the target. Russia, like Central and Eastern Europe, is in a very different situation, with projected emissions considerably lower than its commitments. Under the Protocol, "emissions credits" can be sold to countries with emissions over their target. But this will not suffice to compensate for over-target emissions in other countries. Net emissions will be about 15% above targets in 2010. If the United States, which does not intend to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, is excluded, the gap falls to 2%. Despite whether the it can be met or not, the Kyoto Protocol represents a way for the international society to start aiming at a goal of sustainable society by reducing the GHG emissions, it is just an entrance into a world of deep GHG reduction, i. e. the real changes exist beyond the Kyoto Target. Therefore, the stabilization of atmospheric CO_2 concentrations requires much more radical emissions reductions than those currently planned in which global CO_2 emissions decline to the level of persistent natural land and ocean sinks, an amount expected to be only a small fraction-perhaps a few percent-of current emissions. This paper describes the brief history of the relevant topics on the climate change issue with ongoing effort in Japan, and discusses about the needs and scenarios for the substantial deep reduction of GHG emissions towards the sustainable future.
一般社団法人日本機械学会の論文

TED-AJ03-KN7 TOWARDS A DEEP REDUCTION OF GHG EMISSIONS BEYOND KYOTO TARGET

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