3311 鉄道プロジェクト評価において交通需要分析手法の違いが利用者便益に与える影響

概要

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This paper aims to analyze the relatinship between methods of travel demand analysis and user's benefit stemming from transportation investment. When the different travel demand models are applied to the travel demand analysis of a project evaluation, how much the estimated user's benefit varies among the methods is analyzed. The three methods : the multinominal logit (MNL) model, user equilibrium (UE) model and all-or-nothing (AON) method, are discussed in the paper. These three methods are compared in the empirical analysis of the urban railway project in Tokyo, based on the same data set of generalized cost, travel demand and level of service. Consequently, it is found that the user benefit estimated by the MNL is largest, whereas the benefit by the UE is smaller than the benefit estimated by the MNL by about 10% and the benefit estimated by the AON is smaller than the MNL by about 20%.
社団法人日本機械学会の論文
2003-12-08