Radiation Effects on Cancer Mortality Among A-Bomb Survivors, 1950-72: Comparison of Some Statistical Models and Analysis Based on the Additive Logit Model
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概要
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Various statistical models designed to determine the effects of radiation dose on mortality of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki from specific cancers were evaluated on the basis of a basic k(age) xc(dose) x2 contingency table. From the aspects of application and fits of different models, analysis based on the additive logit model was applied to the mortality experience of this population during a 22 year period from 1 October 1950 to 31 December 1972. The advantages and disadvantages of the additive logit model were demonstrated. Leukemia mortality showed a sharp rise with increase in dose. In particular, the dose response relationship suggests a possible curvature as the log linear of the dose estimated to be more than 600 rad was set arbitrarily at 600 rad and then the average dose in the 200+ rad group would change from 434 to 350 rad. In the 22 year period from 1950 to 1972, a high mortality risk due to radiation was observed in survivors with doses of 200 rad and over for all cancers except leukemia, cancer of the gastrointestinal tract, Iung cancer, cancer of respiratory system and other cancers. On the other hand, during the latest period from 1965 to 1972 a significant risk was noted also for stomach and breast cancers. Survivors who were nine or less in age at the time of the bomb (ATB) and were exposed to high doses of 200+ rad appeared to show a high mortality risk due to all cancers except leukemia, although the number of observed deaths is yet small. A number of interesting areas are discussed from the statistical and epidemiological standpoints, i. e. , the numerical comparison of risks in various models, the general evaluation of cancer mortality by the additive logit model, the dose response relationship, the relative risk in the high dose group, the time period of radiation induced cancer mortality, the difference of dose response between Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of neutrons.
- 日本放射線影響学会の論文
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関連論文
- Pathological and Epidemiologic Study of Gastric Cancer in Atomic Bomb Survivors, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, 1959-77
- Radiation Effects on Cancer Mortality Among A-Bomb Survivors, 1950-72: Comparison of Some Statistical Models and Analysis Based on the Additive Logit Model