マラリア流行の数理モデル(<特集>感染症の数理モデル)

概要

論文の詳細を見る
The models of malaria transmission have been developed for a century. Based on the Ross-Macdonald model that treats patient increase rate and infectious mosquito increase rate as two differential equation, enormous extended models have been branched. Among them, the DMT model is important because it has established SEIR framework and because involves latent period and human immunity against malaria parasites. After the DMT, major extensions included (1) intervention, (2) age-structure of human population, (3) heterogeneity of environmental settings, (4) asymptomatic infection in endemic area, (5) effect of human behavior, (6) interaction between drug-tolerant malaria parasite and mass drug administration, and (7) circulation of multi-strain parasites in a host population. Most of those could catch the actual malaria transmission better than ever, but the difficulty of valid estimation of model parameters made them less general. Heterogeneity and variability of host populations are so important that the further extension of models should be done for human behavior and agent-based framework.
日本応用数理学会の論文
2004-06-25