A Probabilistic Choice Model of Multiple Items Selection

概要

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Conventional choice model of consumer behavior posits that buyers choose a single item or one brand at a time. However, there are many occasions that consumers pick up several items or a couple of brands at the same time to satisfy their own needs and/or to maximize their family's utility. We can observe this kind of phenomena in the market of packaged consumer products such as tobacco, candy bar, beer, and soft drink. We construct a new probabilistic choice model of consumer behavior. In order to deal with such a situation that a consumer makes a simultaneous selection of multiple items from his consideration set of brands, we assume a two stage model of consumer choice behavior. At first stage, we suppose, a consumer makes a decision whether he buys a single brand or a mixed bundle of brands. Then he makes a decision of which brand (s) to be picked up and assigns the allocation number of multiple brands. We use a set of point-of-sale beer data scanned at a convenience store to estimate the model parameters. Our model is well fitted into the empirical data. Marketing implications and the possibilities of further extensions with our basic idea are provided.
法政大学の論文
1995-03-31