日本経済の計量モデル1970-85

概要

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Any kind of economic prediction is made under certain restricted conditions. Therefore, in order to compare various predictions, those have to be made in a systematic framework, which describes the real economy clearly. This framework is an econometric model, which is developed by measuring the economic relations on the basis of some economic theory. Even if we managed to predict without an econometric model, it would incur a contradiction. When we estimate and compare the effects of the alternative policies on the economy, we need a specific model which gives quantitative understanding for the actual economic structure. This paper illustrates how we put economic theory to practical use and how we construct the econometric model. Our econometric model shows the economic structure of Japan since 1970 up to 1985 with simulation analysis. There is an obvious difference in the influence of asset prices on the economy between the period for the sample of our model and the later period up to the present. An attempt will be made to construct the model for the recent Japanese economy.
関西学院大学の論文
1999-12-31