地質環境予測期間と不確実性の取り扱い

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Second Progress Report on Research and Development for the Geological Disposal of HLW in Japan was published in 2000 by Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute. The issue presents basic technical feasibility of safe HLW disposal on Japan. The issue, however, lacks discussion about realistic time frame for geological stability assessment, and treating of instability in geoscientific models, because candidate repository sites have not yet selected in Japan. This paper present short conceptional discussion of the time frames and instability in geoscientific models and propose some time frames and instability treating process.Methods of geological prediction are classified into seven groups: (1) Prediction by extrapolation, (2) Prediction by analogy, (3) Prediction by probability, (4) Prediction by experiment, (5) Prediction by conceptual model, (6) Prediction by numerical simulation, and (7) Prediction by safety assessment model.Geologic future prediction should be cross-checked by several different methods. However, only geological evidence from the earths history of nearly five billion years can verify long-range predictions for subterranean containment of waste which are usually based on short-range experiments and numerical modeling.On the geologically unstable Japanese archipelago, Japan is making extensive efforts for prediction of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions to reduce geological hazards. Long-range geological prediction is investigated for safe disposal of nuclear waste and for subterranean sequestration of CO2.
2001-10-25

地質環境予測期間と不確実性の取り扱い

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